July 21

CIA misses Stalin's bomb.

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And you though CIA screwed up when they were caught unawares on 9/11 and when they overestimated Saddam’s WMD status…
CIA’s Office of Reports and Estimates stated categorically on December 15, 1947 that

it is doubtful that the Russians can produce a bomb before 1953 and almost certain they cannot produce one before 1951. A probable date cannot be estimated.

The Soviets detonated their first atomic bomb on August 29, 1949.


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