And you though CIA screwed up when they were caught unawares on 9/11 and when they overestimated Saddam’s WMD status…
CIA’s Office of Reports and Estimates stated categorically on December 15, 1947 that
it is doubtful that the Russians can produce a bomb before 1953 and almost certain they cannot produce one before 1951. A probable date cannot be estimated.
The Soviets detonated their first atomic bomb on August 29, 1949.